Africa always brings us something new, wrote Pliny the Elder. Over the last months Russia has opened Africa as a new front in its challenge to the West. Specifically in the Sahel, the semi-arid area to the south of the Sahara, France has had to cede much of its power. All this against the backdrop of a war that has been raging for more than ten years, without a lot of news coverage. The sad conclusion is that the forces that France has been fighting are going to profit. To understand what is going on we need to dive into the history first.
With some notable outliers most African states achieved independence in the 1950s and 1960s. While this process was often accompanied by violent conflict, there was one region that was remarkably calm. The French colonies in Western and Central Africa became independent based on a consensus with their former colonial overlord. Not only did this process take place without bloodshed, France also managed to retain a serious economic, military and political power in the region.
At the same time, the rest of the continent was engulfed in turmoil. The era of decolonization coincided with the era of Cold War. As the emerging African states looked for allies they were often caught up in a partnership with either the free world, led by the US, and the communist world, led by the Soviet Union (USSR). As Europe and Asia were seen as more vital territories, the risk of an African conflict leading to World War Three was considered to be low. For that reason, both camps took less caution to prevent the cold war becoming hot in Africa. And hot it became, in Angola, Congo and elsewhere conflicts saw the use of all conventional weapons, including tanks and airstrikes.
Another aspect of the view that Africa was a secondary theater, was that individual states within the Western and Eastern bloc were allowed more independence in international relations. Cuba, China and the German Democratic Republic all intervened more overtly than the USSR could. In the Western camp meanwhile, South Africa was trying to maintain their regime of white supremacy, while the Netherlands and Sweden were doing what they could to undermine it. In the Nigerian civil war (1967-70) the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom supported the government, while France and China sided with the rebels.
With the Soviet Union collapsing during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the cold war came to a sudden end. Sadly, this did not immediately lead to peace across Africa. While military support from both sides was scaled back significantly, the enmity between the warring parties continued. The situation worsened so much that in 2000 the Economist infamously put Africa on its cover with the headline ‘The hopeless continent‘.
In the former French Africa meanwhile, all was going well. In 2011 I was studying international relations of Africa and chose to write about the influence of France on the continent. Although at that time France was already on the decline, I still chose the title ‘Enduring power’. That power could be perceived in multiple ways. First of all, the independent states continued to use either the West African Franc (XOF) or the Central African Franc (XAF). As these currencies were linked to the French Franc (and later to the Euro), trade between France and these countries was made easier. This provided France with a destination for its exports, some of which would have been noncompetitive otherwise. In 1990 it was estimated that the African trade provided France with 300,000 jobs. Militarily, the French could count on their African allies for cooperation. In the field of diplomacy, the formerly French African states followed the line of Paris, even voting against condemnation of the South-African apartheid regime.
Luckily, the days of the ‘lost continent’ are far behind us. From 2000 onward many nations embarked on a successful peace process. Moreover, this happened in a very favorable economic environment. With the meteoric rise of the Chinese and other Asian economies the demand for natural resources skyrocketed as well. As most African states are rich in minerals and agriculture, this meant a host of new economic opportunities. In 2019 the Economist called this The new scramble for Africa. Unlike the 19th century scramble, this one was not to be about military subjugation. Unlike the post-decolonization conflicts, this one was not to be about competing ideologies. On the contrary, the new scramble would be fought purely as a economic conflict, in which the Africans would be the winners.
Meanwhile however, the Sahel had to deal with yet another type of conflict. As early as 2002, the region became one of the key fronts in the War on Terror. In that year Algerian fighters banded together to form Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In 2012 this group managed to conquer the Northern half of Mali. That same year France responded by starting operation Serval to bring the whole of Mali back under government control. In 2014 Serval was followed up by operation Barkhane. This operation is ending now, and sadly not because it is no longer necessary.
Recent votes in the United Nations have painfully demonstrated that France can no longer count on its African allies to follow the French line. When on March second the UN general assembly voted to condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine, Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR) conspicuously abstained. Russia has had a close relationship with the CAR president for years while it has expanded its influence in Mali following a military coup in May 2021.
The governments of Mali and CAR are not choosing to support Russia because of traditional reasons. Russian trade with these countries is negligible, Russia is also not providing these countries with large flows of investments. Even in the military field, Russia is not intervening forcefully. What Russia is providing is something Western nations are not able or willing to do: a solution for embattled governments to stay in power. These solutions are asymmetric, thus not requiring Russia to go toe to toe with France. Instead of official military support, Russia is providing these governments with private military contractors, personnel of the Wagner group. In addition, Russia can offer resource deals that are paid directly in arms or personal financial contributions. This way Russia can expand its influence at limited cost.
In CAR Russian mercenaries have been deployed to prop-up president Faustin-Archange Touadéra. President Macron of France has described the president as a ‘hostage’ of these Russian fighters. Despite the CAR government’s limited funds it was able to afford the deployment by agreeing to a mineral rights deal. Although more than half of the CAR budget is provided by the EU and World Bank, the government still decided to back Russia in the crucial UN vote. The Russian presence is causing a lot of rumors, with rebel forces claiming the Wagner mercenaries committed atrocities against civilians. At the Wagner side, its CAR military leader, Vitaly Perfilev, claimed he was poisoned by a foreign actor.
In Mali meanwhile, Wagner group operatives where deployed in December to support the country’s new government. Although the armed forces of Mali can definitely benefit from more training in their conflict against insurgents, another goal is to make the government coup-proof. To rally popular support, the Malian government is promoting their record in standing up to the ‘neocolonialist’ French. Among other things, the government asked French forces to immediately leave, de facto ending operation Barkhane. Satellite imagery shows Wagner forces constructing a military base close to the capital of Bamako. The information war is also in full swing, with fake pictures being shared showing Malian forces being trained by Wagner. On the twenty-first of April a video appeared of departing French forces apparently digging a mass grave of civilian casualties. French armed forces vehemently denied the claim and stated that the armed forces in Mali had already faced multiple information attacks.
The asymmetric operations in both CAR and Mali appear to bear the fingerprints of Vladimir Putin, one of the great leaders of the post-modern age. Russian agents have become masters of slandering opponents. And if everyone is evil, Putin does not seem so bad himself. Bypassing the established government channels has allowed Russia to punch far above its weight in the Sahel. Any squabbling between Russia, France and African leaders is bound to create more opportunities for those Jihadists determined to impose their rule on the region. France and its partners will need to respond. Although understandably most Europeans would not want to sink to Putin’s level, it is clear that to have more funding, more trade and more military force is no longer enough.